NFL Betting Against Big Road Favorites

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Big road favorites in the NFL can be described as any team favored by 7 or more points playing at the opponents home stadium. Because of the parody in the NFL, seeing a road team favored by seven or more is a rarity. In today's NFL, the experts know that only a turnover or two separate the best team and the very worst team from being on even footing.

A team really has to be very bad to be home underdogs and be getting a touchdown or more. But one must remember, even the worst of all the starters in the NFL were star players at some level and fully capable of having a great game. Tyler Thigpen, who came in and played for the Miami Dolphins when Chad Henne and Chad Pennington were both out, is by all accounts an awful QB. But earlier this decade, he was rewriting his college team's record book at Coastal Carolina. One might be inclined to argue that it's Coastal Carolina and therefore it is easy to do this. But one must also remember most of these players, on both sides of the ball, are on the same talent level. Thigpen was throwing to guys of the same speed and skill level as their opponents. It's not like he was the QB for Ohio State and they played Miss. Valley State every week. Speaking of which, great players do come from the ranks of smaller schools all the time. And speaking of which again, Miss. Valley State may sound familiar to you because they produced the best WR ever to play, Jerry Rice.

Back to the topic at hand. In the last ten years there have been less than 100 games where the road team was favored by 7 or more. That is out of over 5,000 regular season games played. 0.02% range. The road favorite has covered only 1/3 of the time. Last year alone there were 10 games of this description. The road favorite only covered the spread twice. No matter how bad the team is that is getting 7 or more at home, you must consider betting them.